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Circulation: Heart Failure

○ Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Circulation: Heart Failure's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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The Cardio-Pal Score - A Novel Prognostication Tool For 6-Month Mortality In Heart Failure Inpatients

Bews, H.; tam, j.; Quan, S.; Dolovich, C.; Whalen, K.; Beaudry, S.-J.; Butterworth, S.; Southam, A.; Pilkey, J.

2026-10-01 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.28.26364242 medRxiv
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Background: Patients with heart failure (HF) experience high mortality, yet survival estimates remain challenging. Available prognostic tools commonly predict survival beyond 1-year, limiting goals of care discussions and enrollment on palliative care programs. The objective of this project was to develop a novel prognostic score to better predict 6-month mortality. Methods: Patients with HF admitted to the St. Boniface Hospital (Winnipeg, Canada) between January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2024 were identified. Patient characteristics, imaging parameters, laboratory values, and functional assessments (Palliative Performance Scale; PPSv2) were collected. Patients were randomly divided into development (80%) and validation (20%) cohorts. Penalized LASSO regression was used to select variables most predictive of 6-month mortality in the development cohort. Retained variables were incorporated into a multivariable logistic regression model to derive the CARDIO-PAL score, the performance of which was assessed in the holdout validation cohort. Results: Characteristics were similar between the development (n = 2036) and validation (n = 508) cohorts, with 6-month mortality rates of 29% and 31%, respectively. 8 candidate variables were retained: age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.01), PPSv2 (aOR 2.08), systolic blood pressure (aOR 1.14), discontinued use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker (aOR 2.58), beta-blocker (aOR 1.59), and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (aOR 2.67), right ventricular systolic pressure (aOR 2.06), and urea (aOR 2.13). The CARDIO-PAL score demonstrated good discrimination, with an area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 - 0.84) and good calibration (slope 0.84, intercept -0.04). 6-month mortality across low, intermediate, and high-risk groups was 2%, 15%, and 54%, respectively. Conclusion: The CARDIO-PAL score is a novel tool to predict 6-month mortality in HF inpatients. A collaborative approach integrating CARDIO-PAL with other prognostic scores and serial clinical assessments has the potential to promote patient-centered care and improve referral to palliative care programs.

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New-Onset Heart Failure in Patients with Obesity using Tirzepatide or Semaglutide

Al-Nusair, M.; Haddad, T. A.; Khurana, S.; Al-Nusair, J.

2026-09-26 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.21.26363546 medRxiv
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Background: Tirzepatide and semaglutide improve functional status and heart failure (HF) events in patients with obesity and HF with preserved ejection fraction. Tirzepatide has been associated with greater control of cardiometabolic risk factors in patients with obesity compared to semaglutide. Whether tirzepatide is associated with lower risk of new-onset HF than semaglutide in patients with obesity is underexplored. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data pooled from the TriNetX platform. Patients with obesity who initiated therapy with tirzepatide or semaglutide during the period Jun 4, 2021 to Aug 13, 2026 were identified and 1:1 propensity-score matched to produce two study cohorts. The one-year incidence of new-onset HF was calculated and compared between the two cohorts. Secondary outcomes included new-onset systolic HF, new-onset diastolic heart failure, new-onset atrial fibrillation or flutter, all-cause mortality, and hospital encounters. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to calculate hazard ratios (HR) along with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Two well-matched cohorts (N=424,269 in each) were formed. The incidence of new-onset HF was lower in the tirzepatide group (1.0% vs. 1.3%; absolute risk difference -0.3%, 95% CI -0.35 to -0.26; HR 0.9, 95% CI 0.86[boxh]0.93). The tirzepatide group were also at lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 95% CI: 0.8, 0.77[boxh]0.91) and new-onset systolic HF (0.8, 0.79[boxh]0.92). All other secondary outcomes occurred at similar rates in both study groups. Conclusion: Among patients with obesity, tirzepatide therapy was associated with lower risk of new-onset HF compared to semaglutide although the effect sizes were modest.

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The Hypoxic Burden of Sleep Apnea Predicts Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure

Masaki, M.; Tsumoto, S.; Shiroshita, N.; Kawana, F.; Ishiwata, S.; Kitagawa, H.; Yanagisawa, M.; Kasai, T.

2026-09-30 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.29.26364138 medRxiv
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Background: Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is an established adverse prognostic factor in heart failure (HF). Sleep apnea-specific hypoxic burden (SASHB), which reflects the duration and depth of respiratory event-related oxygen desaturation, has shown stronger prognostic value than the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) in general populations and patients with coronary artery disease. However, its clinical utility in patients hospitalized due to acute HF remains unclear. Objectives: This study evaluated the prognostic value of SASHB in patients hospitalized for acute HF and compared its performance with AHI for risk stratification and identification of patients who may benefit from positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy. Methods: This post hoc analysis included 230 patients from a prospective single-center observational cohort of adults hospitalized for acute HF. The primary analysis included 178 patients who did not receive PAP treatment. Associations of SASHB and AHI with the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for worsening HF were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. Model improvement after adding SASHB or AHI to a model including established clinical risk factors was assessed using changes in the C index and Brier score, reflecting changes in model discrimination and prediction error, respectively. In the full cohort, the interaction between PAP treatment and SDB metrics was evaluated using the g-formula. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, 58 of 178 patients (32.6%) reached the composite endpoint. Both SASHB and AHI were independently associated with the composite outcome after multivariable adjustment. However, only SASHB consistently predicted outcomes across analyses and improved model performance beyond established prognostic factors (bootstrap {Delta} C index, 0.020 [95% CI: 0.008 - 0.031]; bootstrap {Delta} Brier score, - 0.007 [95% CI: - 0.014 to - 0.001]), whereas AHI did not. In the analysis including PAP-treated patients, both SASHB and AHI showed interaction with PAP treatment. Conclusions: In patients hospitalized for acute HF, SASHB showed a consistent independent association with adverse clinical outcomes and provided additional prognostic information beyond AHI. SASHB may improve risk stratification and may help identify patients who are more likely to benefit from PAP therapy.

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Influence of Early Endomyocardial Biopsy on the Treatment and Prognosis in Fulminant Myocarditis

Takei, Y.; Chikamori, T.; Kanaoka, K.; Onoue, K.; Satomi, K.; Saito, Y.

2026-09-27 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.24.26363980 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: Because of the high mortality rate associated with fulminant myocarditis (FM), there is limited evidence regarding the prognostic efficacy of endomyocardial biopsy (EMB). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the influence of EMB in the early phase after admission on treatment and prognosis in FM using a large-scale nationwide registry in Japan. METHODS: Patients with FM who required catecholamine or mechanical circulatory support between 2012 and 2017 from 235 hospitals across Japan were included. The primary outcome of death or heart transplantation within 90 days according to performance of early EMB were determined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Factors associated with performance of early EMB, and subsequent medical treatment were analyzed. RESULTS: The median age of 736 patients with clinical FM was 56 years, and 407 patients (55%) received EMB. Most EMB (89%) were performed during the early phase (within 5 days of admission) and 63% were performed on the first day of admission. The prognosis of FM patients who underwent EMB was more favorable than that of those who did not based on the landmark analysis (log-rank test, P=0.04). Factor analysis demonstrated that FM patients who underwent EMB had a lower left ventricular ejection fraction, higher incidence of cardiogenic shock on admission, and higher rate of early mechanical circulatory support, as well as early initiation of corticosteroids and guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) for heart failure. Absence of any GDMT was associated with a less favorable prognosis on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio, 4.34 [95% CI, 3.14?6.01]; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Although performing EMB in the early phase after admission depends on disease severity in FM patients, it is associated with early initiation of advanced medical treatment and may contribute to improving the prognosis.

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Efficacy of Disease-Modifying Treatments in Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Five Phase III Randomized Controlled Trials

Hung, Y.-H.; Tsai, C.-H.; Kao, T.-W.; Wu, Y.-W.; Yu, W.-C.; Carigi, S.; Sperry, B. W.; Perlini, S.; Lin, Y.-H.

2026-10-12 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.10.26365208 medRxiv
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Background Several disease-modifying agents for transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) have been investigated, but differences in trial design and background stabilizer use complicate interpretation of their efficacy. This meta-analysis assessed their efficacy overall and by background stabilizer use. Methods PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched through September 2026 for phase III randomized, placebo-controlled trials of disease-modifying therapy in ATTR-CM. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality, 6-minute walk distance (6MWD), Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire-Overall Summary (KCCQ-OS) score, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), pooled with a random-effects model. Treatment effects were compared between the monotherapy and baseline stabilizer strata using a mixed-effects model. Results Five trials (ATTR-ACT, APOLLO-B, ATTRibute-CM, HELIOS-B, CARDIO-TTRansform; N=3497) were included. Disease-modifying therapy reduced all-cause mortality (risk ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.87; I2=0%) and improved 6MWD (pooled standardized mean difference [SMD], 0.43; 95% CI, 0.20-0.67), KCCQ-OS score (SMD, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.19-0.55), and NT-proBNP (SMD, -0.53; 95% CI, -0.89 to -0.18). The mortality benefit was similar whether therapy was given alone or added to a background stabilizer (pooled risk ratio, 0.77 vs. 0.71; P for interaction = 0.59), but treatment effects on 6MWD (pooled SMD, 0.49 vs. 0.14), KCCQ-OS score (0.44 vs. 0.07), and NT-proBNP (-0.65 vs. -0.13) were smaller among patients receiving a background stabilizer (P for interaction = 0.012, <0.001, and 0.029, respectively). Conclusion Disease-modifying treatments reduced all-cause mortality and favored functional capacity, health status, and NT-proBNP outcomes in patients with ATTR-CM. Exploratory subgroup analyses showed smaller treatment effects on 6MWD, KCCQ-OS score, and NT-proBNP among patients receiving a background stabilizer, with no statistically significant difference in the mortality effect according to baseline stabilizer use.

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Plantar Thermography for Longitudinal Remote Monitoring of Chronic Heart Failure

Esposito, M. L.; Xuan, L.; Zemp, E.; Zile, M. R.; Tedford, R. J.; Linders, D.; Prins, K. W.

2026-10-21 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.20.26364428 medRxiv
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Rural patients with heart failure (HF) have poor access to care, worse outcomes, and may benefit from at-home monitoring. We evaluated whether foot temperature measured using a thermographic floor mat was associated with invasively measured cardiac output and whether longitudinal temperature changes preceded HF events. We conducted a two-part prospective, observational single-center study using the SmartMat (Podimetrics, Somerville, MA), which acquires plantar thermograms and ambient temperature. In the acute study, patients undergoing clinically indicated right heart catheterization completed 4 scans on the same day. In the chronic study, patients with a HF hospitalization in the past year and New York Heart Association Class II-III symptoms were instructed to use the device and a scale daily for 6 months. A HF event was defined as receiving at least one dose of intravenous or subcutaneous diuretic. Thirty patients were enrolled in the acute study. Mean right hallux temperature positively correlated with thermodilution cardiac output (r=0.63, p<0.001). 42 patients were enrolled in the chronic study. Among patients experiencing an HF event, ambient-adjusted hallux temperature declined in the 15 days immediately preceding the event compared with days 15-30 before the event. Plantar thermograms are associated with invasively measured cardiac output and may detect subclinical worsening before HF events. Foot temperature may provide complementary information regarding HF decompensation, supporting further evaluation of plantar thermography for remote HF monitoring.

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Real-World Implementation and Clinical Outcomes of Mavacamten in an Underserved Urban Cohort With Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Bock, J.; Murthy, S.; Schenone, A. L.; Weissler-Snir, A.

2026-10-01 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.29.26364363 medRxiv
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Background Real-world data regarding mavacamten use in underserved and racially diverse populations remain limited, particularly for long-term therapy implementation. Structural barriers such as financial instability, fragmented healthcare access, and challenges adhering to REMS-related monitoring requirements may affect longitudinal therapy implementation. Methods We performed a retrospective observational study of consecutive patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (oHCM) evaluated for mavacamten therapy at a tertiary HCM center in Bronx, NY, between 6/2022-10/2025. Patients were followed for up to 48 weeks after treatment initiation. Clinical characteristics, treatment interruptions, adverse events, echocardiographic and functional outcomes, and implementation barriers were assessed descriptively. Results Seventy-two patients with symptomatic oHCM were evaluated for mavacamten; sixty-seven initiated treatment. Mean age was 66.9{+/-}15.3 years, 72% were female, and 61% identified as Black or Hispanic. Median resting left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) gradient decreased from 51mmHg (IQR30-88) at baseline to 7mmHg (IQR5-10) at 48 weeks. Median Valsalva LVOT gradient decreased from 74mmHg (IQR50-104) to 20mmHg (IQR10-29). At final follow-up, 80% of patients improved by [&ge;]1 NYHA functional class. LVEF declined below 50% in five patients and recovered in all cases. Approximately one-quarter experienced treatment interruption or discontinuation, nearly half related to insurance instability, non-adherence, and REMS-related monitoring barriers. Conclusions Mavacamten demonstrated efficacy and safety outcomes comparable to those reported in clinical trials and prior registries in this predominantly underserved minority urban cohort. However, structural and healthcare-access barriers substantially affected long-term treatment implementation. These findings highlight the need to address healthcare-system barriers to ensure equitable implementation of contemporary HCM therapies.

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Inflammatory Burden, Structural Exposure, and Racial Disparities in Incident Heart Failure: Evidence from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Rivera-Mariani, F. E.; Campbell, T.; Solomon, E.

2026-10-01 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.28.26364238 medRxiv
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Background: Racial disparities in incident heart failure (HF) are well documented, yet the extent to which systemic inflammatory burden-shaped by structural determinants of environmental exposure-accounts for these disparities remains unquantified in multi-ethnic prospective cohorts. Methods: Among 6785 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (enrolled 2000-2002; 4 racial/ethnic groups) followed for approximately 16 years, we estimated associations of 4 prespecified baseline inflammatory and hemostatic biomarkers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein [CRP], fibrinogen, and D-dimer; per 1-SD increment) with incident HF (485 events) using Cox proportional hazards models. A composite inflammatory burden index was derived by principal components analysis. Race x biomarker multiplicative interactions were tested with Holm correction. Sequential biomarker adjustment quantified the percentage of the Black-White log-hazard difference explained relative to a clinical-only model. Robustness to ambient air pollution (PM2.5, NO2) was assessed in a geocoded subcohort. Results: All 4 biomarkers were independently associated with incident HF (IL-6: hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.08-1.34]; D-dimer: 1.18 [1.06-1.30]; CRP: 1.14 [1.02-1.27]; fibrinogen: 1.13 [1.02-1.24]). The composite index (first principal component, 53.7% of variance explained) yielded an HR of 1.25 (1.12-1.39) per 1-SD increase. No multiplicative race x biomarker interaction was detected (all Holm-corrected P=1.0), indicating that the per-SD inflammatory hazard was directionally consistent across groups. Sequential biomarker adjustment reduced the Black-White log-hazard difference by 57.5%, a pattern consistent with-but not sufficient to prove-attenuation by inflammatory pathways. Associations were robust to PM2.5/NO2 co-adjustment. Conclusions: Inflammatory and hemostatic burden partially explains the Black-White disparity in incident HF. The null multiplicative interaction pattern indicates that per-unit biological risk is equitable across groups, consistent with differential structural exposure-rather than differential susceptibility-as a primary driver of disparity. Key Words: heart failure; inflammation; health equity; structural determinants; MESA; biomarkers

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Cardiomyocyte-Derived Cell-Free DNA in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Kamna, D.; Davis, B. A.; Layman, C.; Wiedrick, J.; Avaylon, S.; Wheeler, K.; Jahan, I.; Carbone, L.; Masri, A.

2026-10-13 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.12.26365358 medRxiv
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Introduction: In hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), wall stress and subclinical myocardial injury related in part to pathological hypercontractility, which in turn are associated with worse outcomes. Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) is released from cardiomyocytes (cfDNA-CM) through irreversible cellular injury and death. We investigated the feasibility of quantifying cfDNA-CM and its relationship to HCM patient characteristics. Methods: We analyzed 57 plasma samples from stable patients with HCM and 10 plasma samples from patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Plasma cfDNA was isolated from both groups. Whole genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS) libraries were generated and sequenced with short-read sequencing. Methylation patterns were used for tissue deconvolution analysis and cell-specific cfDNA quantification. Results: Yields of cfDNA (p = 0.003) and cfDNA-CM (p = 0.002) fractions were higher in AMI controls than HCM, supporting the validity of the assay. Within the HCM cohort, the median cfDNA yield was 12.22 ng [IQR: 7.77, 18.94]. The cfDNA-CM fraction in this cohort ranged from 0% to 6.4% of total cfDNA. Higher cfDNA-CM tertiles were associated with higher body mass index (BMI, p=0.001), a greater prevalence of BMI 30 kg/m2 (p<0.001), and a higher prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (p=0.038). No significant differences were observed in other demographic, genetic, and laboratory characteristics. Higher cfDNA-CM tertile was numerically associated with higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class and left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) obstruction, while circulating biomarkers of wall stress (NT-proBNP) and myocardial injury (troponin) did not differ across tertiles (p=0.83 and p=0.29, respectively). Conclusion: Isolation and quantification of cfDNA as well as detection of cfDNA-CM in chronic stable patients with HCM are feasible. Higher cfDNA-CM fraction was associated with increasing BMI and cardiometabolic comorbidity burden. The absence of association with traditional circulating biomarkers suggests that cfDNA-CM may reflect a distinct domain of myocardial health, injury, and adverse remodeling.

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Circulating Proteins as Predictors of Improvement in Physical Function in Hospitalized Older Adults with Geriatric Syndromes: Findings from the REHAB-HF Trial

Damluji, A. A.; Bruce, S. A.; deFilippi, C. R.

2026-09-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.22.26363692 medRxiv
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IntroductionCirculating proteins may augment prognostic scores and provide mechanistic insights for cardiovascular disease. Their role for adding precision to predicting response to therapeutic exercise training is less certain. Older adults with HF frequently experience geriatric syndromes, which may influence response to a rehabilitation intervention (RI). We sought to determine if the functional benefits of a 12-week tailored, structured, and progressive multidomain physical RI program in older adults, following a HF admission, could be estimated by pre-intervention levels of proteins. MethodsHospitalized adults age [&ge;] 60 years with HF were randomized to 12-week multidimensional (aerobic, strength, balance, flexibility) physical therapist-led RI versus attention control (AC). Outcomes included change in the short physical performance battery (SPPB) and 6-minute walk distance (6MWD). At pre-intervention and 12-weeks, 92 circulating proteins associated with CVD and inflammation were measured. Using linear regression, LASSO and ensemble tree-based approaches for flexible feature selection, proteins were selected for stratification of treatment response. Decision trees were developed to incorporate a multi-protein approach to optimize stratification of treatment response (effect measure modifiers [EMM]) for both functional outcomes. Differences in 12-week temporal changes based on RI vs AC and mediation analysis were used to assess possible causal roles for these proteins. ResultsBaseline proteomic data was available in 243/349 participants (69.6%). For SPPB, 2 proteins (GP6, ST2), and for 6MWD, 3 proteins (ALCAM, Gal-4, PECAM-1) were selected as EMMs. For SPPB, a decision tree with ST2 followed by GP6 level identified a differential 12-week improvement in score for RI vs AC from -0.8 (95%CI -1.9, 0.2) to 2.1 (95%CI 1.5, 2.7). For 6MWD, the optimized decision tree was based only on ALCAM with a differential 12-week improvement in score for RI vs AC from 10m (95%CI -17m, 36m) to 85m (95%CI 56m, 113m). However, none of the EMM proteins were mediators of change for the functional outcomes. ConclusionsCirculating proteins related to CVD and inflammation (GP6, ST2, ALCAM) stratify a successful functional response to the REHAB-HF rehabilitation program in older adults following HF hospitalization. Further investigation is needed to identify proteins associated with a causal role for rehabilitation benefits.

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Pre-Deployment Cardiovascular Risk Assessment and Outcomes among United States Antarctic Program Participants: Insights from Contemporary Risk Models

LeBlanc, D. P.; Qadeer, A.; Krishna, S. R. G.; Forrester, A.; Patel, A.; Shi, D.; Nagueh, E.; Hsu, J.; Bhobe, N.; Gaalema, D. E.; McKeith, J.; Jneid, H.; Allencherril, J.

2026-10-16 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365580 medRxiv
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Background: Cardiovascular (CV) screening is critical for personnel deploying to Antarctica, where geographic isolation and limited medical care make the management of acute cardiovascular events challenging. The utility of contemporary risk prediction tools such as the AHA PREVENT equations in this unique population remains uncertain. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 154 individuals referred for enhanced CV evaluation before deployment to the U.S. Antarctic Program (USAP). Participants were evaluated across three temporal cohorts (2018-2020, 2021-2023, and 2024-2026). Demographics, CV risk factors, cardiac testing, and deployment clearance outcomes were collected. Risk was estimated using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), AHA/ACC Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE), and AHA PREVENT risk models. Results: The cohort was predominantly male (79.9%; mean age 44.6 {+/-} 14.6 years), and abnormal ECG was the most common referral trigger (70.8%). Median 10-year risk was low by PREVENT and FRS and borderline elevated by PCE (PREVENT 2.7% [IQR 1.1-6.6], FRS 2.3% [IQR 0.5-7.1], and PCE 6.1% [IQR 2.4-9.2]). Among 72 participants with all scores, 51% were classified discordantly; PREVENT ASCVD agreed closely with FRS (=0.77) but poorly with PCE (=0.24-0.35), which consistently estimated higher risk. PCE was calculable in 52.6% versus 70.8% for PREVENT. Overall, 132 participants (85.7%) were cleared for deployment, while 8 (5.2%) were not physically qualified (NPQ); 6 of these NPQs were due to cardiovascular causes. Of 22 cardiac medical evacuations during the study period, 21 involved individuals without prior advanced cardiovascular screening. One screened individual was evacuated for symptoms subsequently found to have no cardiac cause. Conclusions: Risk calculators disagree substantially in the fitness-selected population. We recommend PREVENT as the primary risk-stratification tool as it is the most contemporary derivation, incorporates renal function, is race-agnostic, extends to heart failure, applies from age 30, and agrees closely with FRS, easing transition. Targeted imaging, including coronary artery calcium scoring, may supplement intermediate-risk candidates.

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Health-Related Quality of Life, Healthcare Utilization, and Expenditure in US Adults With Myocardial Infarction and Heart Failure: The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey 2019 to 2024

Hasan, I.; Jafary, Z. I.; Rana, S.; Thyagaturu, H.

2026-10-02 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.27.26363737 medRxiv
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Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) impose a physical and emotional toll that has not been measured nationally with a standard instrument. Methods: We pooled the 2019 to 2024 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey into 4 mutually exclusive groups of adults aged 18 and older: MI without HF, HF without MI, both conditions, and neither condition. Quality of life was assessed with the Veterans RAND 12-item component summaries, T scores (mean 50, SD 10) on which higher is better and 3 points is minimally important. Survey-weighted linear regression adjusted for demographics, socioeconomic factors, and comorbidity. Results: Among 79,853 adults representing 253.8 million US adults, 4.2% (3,340) had MI alone, 0.6% (480) HF alone, and 0.3% (236) both. Unadjusted physical scores ranged from 33.2 with HF alone to 39.1 with MI alone, versus 50.5 with neither. Adjusted physical scores were lower by 3.84 points (95% CI, 3.20-4.47) with MI alone, 8.32 (95% CI, 7.04-9.61) with HF alone, and 7.74 (95% CI, 5.73-9.76) with both, each beyond the minimally important threshold. Adjusted mental scores were lower by 1.35 points with MI alone, 1.20 with HF alone, and 1.69 with both, all below that threshold. Adults with both conditions did not differ from those with HF alone (0.58 points; 95% CI, -1.76 to 2.92). Emergency visits, inpatient discharges, and expenditure were higher in every cardiac group and highest with both conditions, where annual expenditure reached $37,198 versus $7,845 with neither. Conclusions: Physical quality of life fell steadily across the cardiac groups, with HF rather than prior MI accounting for most of it. The difference in mental quality of life did not persist after adjustment. Utilization and spending were highest with both conditions.

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Machine Learning identification in patients with aortic valve stenosis of a myocardial miRNA signature predictive of reverse cardiac remodelling after valve replacement

Juarez, C.; Nistal, J. F.; de la Torre-Cubillo, I.; Calvo, M.; Redondo, J. M.; Bedia, J.; Garcia, R.

2026-09-24 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.22.26363736 medRxiv
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Background: Aortic stenosis (AS) is a valvular heart disease which imposes chronic pressure overload on the left ventricle (LV). Although LV remodelling may regress following aortic valve replacement, the molecular determinants of reverse remodelling remain poorly understood. This study develops a machine learning-based model using myocardial microRNA (miRNA) expression profiles to predict LV mass normalization one year after valve replacement. Methods: Consensus selection combining Random Forest and Bayesian Network analyses was applied to miRNA sequencing data from LV biopsies of 12 matched patient pairs with AS. Selected miRNAs were qPCR quantified in an extended cohort of 89 AS patients and incorporated into predictive models. Sex-stratified analyses were performed. Model robustness was assessed using bootstrap resampling and cross-validation. Candidate miRNAs and target genes were evaluated in LV from a murine model of pressure overload induced by transverse aortic constriction (TAC). Results: The combined Random Forest-Bayesian Network approach identified a three-miRNA signature (miR-517a-3p, miR-122b-5p, and miR-4683) associated with LV mass normalization after valve replacement. Validation in an extensive cohort demonstrated good overall discrimination and achieved its highest performance in women (AUC >0.80). Functional analyses identified drebrin (DBN1) as a putative target of miR-517a-3p and supported its potential involvement in pressure overload-induced cardiac remodelling. Conclusion: Random Forest and Bayesian Network integrated analyses enabled the identification of a myocardial miRNA signature with sex-dependent predictive value for reverse cardiac remodelling after aortic valve replacement. Functional validation supports the relevance of selected miRNAs and their downstream targets, highlighting their potential as biomarkers and candidate regulators of myocardial recovery.

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Deep learning cardiac motion analysis reveals the dynamic pathophysiology and genetic architecture of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Steffner, K. R.; Quach, N.; Reddy, S. G.; Xia, R.; Kiwakyou, L.; Gomes, B.; Ashley, E. A.

2026-09-29 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.28.26364208 medRxiv
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Background: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) accounts for approximately half of the more than 64 million heart failure cases globally, yet its pathophysiology is incompletely understood, its molecular determinants are poorly defined, and disease-specific therapies remain limited. Comprehensive characterization of the cardiac motion abnormalities central to HFpEF has not been feasible at the population level. Methods: We developed a deep learning framework integrating image segmentation with optical flow motion analysis and applied it to standard cine cardiac magnetic resonance images from 83,569 UK Biobank participants, deriving 32 myocardial and inner cavity velocity phenotypes spanning the cardiac cycle, including mid-diastolic velocities not previously quantified at population scale. We examined the prognostic relevance, genetic architecture, and candidate causal mediators of the optical flow velocity phenotypes. Results: In a pragmatically defined HFpEF subcohort, mid-diastolic and late-diastolic optical flow velocities were reduced relative to healthy reference participants, while higher systolic left ventricular myocardial velocity was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR 0.61 per SD; 95% CI 0.45-0.82). Genome-wide association analyses identified 12 risk loci associated with optical flow velocity phenotypes. Phospholamban (PLN), the canonical regulator of sarcoplasmic reticulum calcium reuptake, demonstrated the broadest pleiotropy across all cardiac phases. SOX5, a transcription factor involved in extracellular matrix development, showed significant genome-wide association exclusively with mid-diastolic velocities. Mendelian randomization implicated RABGAP1L as a candidate causal mediator of early diastolic velocity (IVW {beta} = -0.255 per NPX for early diastolic right ventricular inner circumferential velocity; p = 5.49 x 10^-22), nominating a calcium-handling pathway in diastolic dysfunction. Conclusion: Genetic and causal-inference evidence implicates intracellular calcium handling and extracellular matrix remodeling as candidate mechanisms underlying diastolic dysfunction. Together, this work establishes deep-learning-enabled cardiac motion phenotyping as a scalable approach to interrogate the molecular basis of HFpEF and nominates candidate targets for therapeutic development.

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Association Between Preoperative Anemia and Postoperative Outcomes in Adults Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Hammad, W. A.; Hammad, A. A. I.

2026-09-30 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.24.26363864 medRxiv
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Preoperative anaemia is common in adults undergoing cardiac surgery and may identify patients at increased perioperative risk. This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesised contemporary observational evidence in accordance with PRISMA 2020. Five databases were searched for peer-reviewed English language studies published from 2017 to July 2026. Random effects meta-analyses used restricted maximum likelihood estimation with Hartung-Knapp confidence intervals; crude exact count estimates were synthesised primarily and adjusted estimates separately. Fourteen observational cohort studies involving 74,571 adults, including 17,349 (23.3%) with anaemia, were included. Preoperative anaemia was associated with red cell transfusion (OR, 3.66; 95% CI, 2.14-6.24), acute kidney injury or renal failure (OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.84-3.21), early mortality (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.40-3.17), and postoperative infection (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.21-1.82), but not postoperative stroke (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.43-3.17). Certainty was low for renal outcomes and very low for the other outcomes. Preoperative anaemia is an important perioperative risk marker, particularly for transfusion and renal complications, although causality cannot be established.

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Myocardial Perfusion in Patients with Primary Mitral Regurgitation Due to Mitral Valve Prolapse

Lodin, K.; Nickander, J.; Wang Gottlieb, A.; Widaeus, J.; Ostergaard, L.; Lund, L. H.; Svenarud, P.; Dalen, M.; Tehrani, S.; Carlsson, M.; Shahim, B.

2026-10-06 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.04.26364711 medRxiv
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Background: Mitral regurgitation (MR) is a common complication of mitral valve prolapse (MVP) and increases left ventricular (LV) preload, promotes LV remodeling and hypertrophy, but its impact on myocardial perfusion and coronary microvascular dysfunction remains unclear. Objectives: To assess myocardial perfusion using, for the first time, quantitative cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) perfusion mapping in patients with significant MR due to MVP. Methods: Patients with significant primary MR, without coronary artery disease were prospectively enrolled and compared to age- and sex-matched controls without MR. All underwent 1.5T CMR including cine imaging, adenosine stress perfusion, native T1, native T2, extracellular volume (ECV) mapping and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). Myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR) was calculated as the ratio of stress to rest myocardial perfusion. Results: In total 33 patients and 33 controls were included (age 56{+/-}13 vs. 58{+/-}12 years, 46% women in both groups). Patients with MR had increased LV mass and volumes, higher native T1 and ECV and a higher prevalence of LGE (36% vs 0%). No differences were observed in global myocardial perfusion at rest (0.88{+/-}0.27 vs. 0.85{+/-}0.30, p=0.52), at stress (2.6{+/-}0.56 vs. 2.8{+/-}0.73 ml/min/g, p=0.29) or for MPR (3.1{+/-}0.75 vs. 3.4{+/-}1.0, p=0.24). In age- and sex-adjusted linear regression, higher NYHA class was associated with lower MPR (0.60, p=0.04). Conclusion: In patients with significant MR due to MVP, myocardial perfusion appears preserved despite LV volume overload. However, lower MPR in symptomatic patients suggests that microvascular dysfunction may emerge in a more advanced disease stage.

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Characterization of Congestive Heart Failure Phenotype in a Murine Model of JAK2V617F-positive Myeloproliferative Neoplasm

Sun, X.; Zheng, H.; Zhan, H.

2026-09-30 pathology 10.64898/2026.09.24.754163 medRxiv
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Background: Murine models are widely used to investigate cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet many established models rely on invasive surgery or genetic manipulation to induce hyperlipidemia and therefore may not fully capture the gradual cardiovascular consequences of mutant hematopoiesis. Tie2-Cre/-FF1/- (Tie2FF1) mice express JAK2V617F mutation in both hematopoietic and endothelial cells and develop spontaneous CVD on a standard chow diet. Methods: We applied a comprehensive, non-invasive cardiovascular phenotyping protocol to 1-year-old Tie2FF1 mice and age-matched controls. Assessments included transthoracic echocardiography, coronary flow reserve by Doppler ultrasound, quantitative analysis of coronary arteriolar structure and perivascular fibrosis, endocardial histology and subendocardial collagen deposition, and histologic evaluation of pulmonary and hepatic congestion. Results: Tie2FF1 mice demonstrated left ventricular dilation, increased cardiac mass, and mildly reduced systolic function without obstructive epicardial coronary disease. Coronary microvascular remodeling was evident by arteriolar narrowing and increased perivascular fibrosis, while coronary flow reserve was markedly reduced in an exploratory cohort. Endocardial endothelial disruption and increased subendocardial fibrosis were also observed. In addition, Tie2FF1 mice showed increased lung and liver weights, pulmonary fluid accumulation, alveolar septal thickening, pulmonary vascular fibrosis, hepatic sinusoidal dilatation, and centrilobular hepatocyte swelling, providing objective evidence of clinically relevant heart failure. Significance: These findings establish Tie2FF1 mice as a spontaneous, non-invasive model with features of coronary microvascular and endocardial endothelial dysfunction and heart failure with mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. The integrated approach described here provides a practical framework for comprehensive murine cardiovascular phenotyping beyond traditional atherosclerosis- and surgery-based models.

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Atrial fibrillation begets atrial fibrillation - serum-driven amplification of atrial electrical instability

Bögner, M.; Ramesh, G.; Fahjen, P.; Hüttemeister, J.; Kirk, M.; Heil, E.; Bock, M.; Zhang, K.; Boehm, G.; Eichelmann, L.; Gerds-Li, J. H.; Hilgendorf, I.; Falk, V.; Mertins, P.; Hindricks, G.; Hohendanner, F.

2026-10-13 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.09.26365177 medRxiv
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Rationale: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is sustained by electrical triggers and atrial substrate, but whether AF itself generates circulating factors that acutely reinforce arrhythmogenesis is unknown. Objective: To determine whether rhythm-dependent serum bioactivity directly destabilizes atrial electrophysiology and to identify associated cellular mechanisms and circulating mediators. Methods and Results: Cardiac samples were obtained from patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) during AF and after restoration of sinus rhythm (SR) using electrical cardioversion. In isolated Langendorff-perfused mouse hearts, AF serum increased the duration, frequency, and cumulative burden of spontaneous atrial depolarizations compared with paired control perfusate. In human induced pluripotent stem cell derived atrial cardiomyocytes, AF patient serum decreased Ca2-transient amplitudes without significant effect on kinetics or Ca2 spark activity. Moreover, AF serum reduced peak sodium current without materially altering voltage-dependent gating or paced action-potential properties. Data-independent acquisition proteomics identified rhythm-associated changes in extracellular-matrix, proteolytic, inflammatory, and signaling proteins, including MMP9, Ccathepsin G, and 14-3-3 family members. Targeted pathway perturbation differentially modified serum-induced Ca2 phenotypes, indicating context-dependent, multifactorial bioactivity. Serum-induced Ca2 responses were not associated with indices of atrial disease severity, including low-voltage substrate burden and left atrial pressure. Conclusions: Persistent AF is accompanied by rhythm-dependent circulating bioactivity that acutely promotes atrial electrical instability and Ca2-dependent trigger formation. These findings extend the concept that AF begets AF beyond tissue-intrinsic remodeling and identify a potentially reversible serum-mediated feed-forward mechanism linking rhythm status and circulating proteomic signals in an atrial substrate severity independent fashion. Keywords: atrial fibrillation; serum; atrial cardiomyopathy; calcium signaling; circulating factors; proteomics

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30-Day Heart Failure Readmission and Post-Discharge Healthcare Use Among Older Australians: A Linked-Data Mixed-Methods Study

Leong, C. S.; Kabir, A.; Barr, M. L.

2026-10-12 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.09.26365178 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Heart failure (HF) is a major public health challenge in ageing populations and a leading cause of unplanned hospital readmissions. Biological, social, and economic factors contribute to recurrent hospitalisation, but gaps remain in understanding how these factors interact and patterns of healthcare use following hospitalisation. Methods: We conducted an explanatory sequential mixed-methods study of patients aged ?60 years with an HF hospital admission between 2016 and 2020 who completed the Sax Institute?s 45 and Up Study baseline questionnaire. Data were linked to Admitted Patient Data Collection, Medicare Benefits Schedule, and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data. HF readmission within 30 days of the index admission was the outcome. Cox proportional hazards models estimated crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs and adjHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests compared survival between groups. Time-series plots mapped healthcare interactions over 1 year following the index admission. Results: Among 4,252 patients with HF, 409 were readmitted within 30 days. Significant predictors included age ?80 years (adjHR, 1.30; 95%CI, 1.01?1.67), 1 chronic condition (adjHR, 2.49; 95%CI, 1.41?4.40), ?2 chronic conditions (adjHR, 1.75; 95%CI, 1.04?2.95), and alcohol consumption above national guidelines (adjHR, 1.45; 95%CI, 1.06?1.98). Time-series analysis indicated that participants with readmission had more frequent out-of-hospital health service contact following their initial HF admission than those without readmission. Conclusions: Older age, chronic conditions, and high alcohol intake increased 30-day HF readmission risk. Differences in healthcare use after admission highlight opportunities for targeted and coordinated post-discharge care.

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Left Ventricular Remodelling and Functional Status Across Mitral Regurgitation Severity in Mitral Valve Prolapse

Lodin, K.; Oliveira Da Silva, C.; Wang, A.; Bulatovic, I.; Ostergaard, L.; Boano, G.; Manouras, A.; Lund, L. H.; Svenarud, P.; Dalen, M.; Carlsson, M.; Nickander, J.; Shahim, B.

2026-10-01 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.09.28.26364239 medRxiv
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Background: Mitral valve prolapse (MVP) causes mitral regurgitation (MR), leading to volume overload and maladaptive left ventricular (LV) remodelling. Objective: To comprehensively characterize markers of maladaptive LV remodelling across MR severity grades in MVP using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), and their association with functional status. Methods: Patients with MVP undergoing 1.5T CMR (2016-2025) were stratified by MR fraction: mild<20%, moderate 20-39%, and severe [&ge;]40%. Exclusion criteria were significant coronary artery disease, rheumatic valve disease, mitral stenosis, previous mitral valve procedures, endocarditis or signs of primary cardiomyopathy. Global native T1, T2, extracellular volume (ECV), indexed ECV (iECV), indexed intracellular volume (iICV), and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) were quantified. Indexed LV end-diastolic volume (EDVI) and the EDV-to-LV mass ratio (EDV/LVM-ratio) were also calculated as indices of LV remodelling and adaptive hypertrophy. Functional status was assessed by NYHA class. Results: Among 112 MVP patients (23 mild, 48 moderate, 41 severe MR) and 20 controls, LGE prevalence (17% vs. 46% vs. 51% vs. 0%) and the proportion with LV dilatation (46% vs. 67% vs. 88% vs 15%) rose progressively with MR severity. Increased EDVI, prevalence of LGE, higher EDV/LVM-ratio, global native T1 and iECV showed the strongest associations with more severe MR, whereas EDV/LVM-ratio, iECV and global native T1 were independently related to NYHA class[&ge;]II. Conclusions: CMR markers of maladaptive LV remodelling were abnormal across all MR grades and increased markedly with MR severity. Global native T1, iECV and EDV/LVM-ratio correlated most strongly with symptom burden, rather than MR severity per se.